Systemwide Eutrophication Modeling

A flowchart diagram of the Long Island Sound Systemwide Modeling Eutrophication Program. Cells # 4-6 describe the regional phase to develop a Long Island Sound Integrated Modeling Framework. For information on the components involving Connecticut and New York (Cells # 1-3) see the New York and Connecticut Modeling Pages.

The Long Island Sound Partnership and its partners are developing the next generation of water quality models to address challenges that threaten progress towards goals and objectives stated in the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP). One of these models, referred to as the systemwide eutrophication model, simulates physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes that impact Sound water quality. This integrated modeling framework will allow stakeholders to better understand changes in water quality due to human activities (e.g., point and nonpoint nutrient pollution) as well as natural drivers (e.g., climate change) that impact the estuary.

Current progress and documentation regarding development of the ROMS – RCA systemwide eutrophication model is available here:

Project Background

In 2019, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) with support from the LIS Partnership released a Request for Proposals (RFP) for the development of a new integrated modeling framework (Diagram 1, cell #6) for the region’s waters. These waters include Long Island Sound, New York Harbor, and New York-New Jersey Bight (the waters along the Atlantic coast extending from Cape May in New Jersey to Montauk Point on the eastern tip of Long Island). The RFP was developed following the production of a detailed report by a technical advisory committee composed of water quality modelers. In 2020, NYCDEP entered into a contract with HDR, Inc. to buildout the modeling framework. The framework integrates hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and ecological sub-models (Diagram 1, cell #4) to simulate the following processes in Long Island Sound:

  • Water circulation and mixing
  • Sediment-water column exchange
  • Nutrient cycling
  • Phytoplankton dynamics
  • Feedbacks between water quality and submerged aquatic vegetation, shellfish, and macroalgae

The new systemwide eutrophication model improves upon the previous generation of models in an effort to guide future planning and management decisions. This multi-year project will strengthen management of Long Island Sound and guide investments in pollution control for the coming decades. The model will also be used to support compliance with regulations for municipal stormwater, combined sewer overflows, and total maximum daily loads at multiple scales:

  • Regional (New York Bight, New York Harbor and Long Island Sound)
  • Estuary (Long Island Sound and New York Harbor)
  • Subestuary (Niantic River Estuary, CT and Port Jefferson Harbor, NY)

EPA and NYCDEP’s goal is to provide access to model output to all stakeholders including the academic community, state agencies, federal agencies, local agencies, environmental organizations, and regulated entities. Access to model output will be available to stakeholders through a graphical user interface and decision support tool (Diagram 1, #5).

Expected Availability Date: 2026 

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